Vice President Powell?

Call it a hunch, but when Richard Johnson of the New York Post's Page Six gets a Republican insider to speak on the Administration, one gets the impression, however veiled, that he or she is someone of note saying something noteworthy. That's why when, at the end of their lead story, Colin Stands Tall With Dubya , there was an intimation of something quite mindblowing, our scoop detectors were up:

"The insider also denied the rumor that Powell would be replaced before the fall election. 'Why would the administration get rid of Powell? He is the only person there who has an 80 percent approval rating, and only person giving [Bush] good advice.

"'Right now, Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld are being blamed for the mess we are in in Iraq, but swing voters love Colin Powell.'

"There is even talk of Powell replacing Cheney as vice president. Not that Cheney, who has a bad heart, would go easily. Cheney, determined to keep fit, even brought an exercycle on his recent trip to Asia.

"'It was this ancient thing, like from the '60s, and he had people lugging it on and off planes wherever he went. It was hilarious.'"

How interesting. The insider, whom I believe is a player in the Administration, is ridiculing Dick Cheney's attempts at projecting manly vitality. Clearly, although Bush has made gains in recent tracking polls, 57 percent believe that the country is "on the wrong track," which is, in no small part, thanks to Cheney. Cheney is increasingly regarded as a liability. And the politically sagacious Dick Morris actually has a negative take in his latest column out today in the Post:

"Both of the polling organizations that track the presidential race in daily surveys have concluded that the contest has settled into a stalemate. Scott Rasmussen reports that for eight of the last nine days, President Bush has gotten 45 to 46 percent of the vote, while Sen. John Kerry ranged from 44 to 46 percent. John Zogby shows Kerry ahead by three and reports little movement either way.

"This 'tie' is terrible news for the Bush camp."

Kerry went out of his way this past Sunday not only to refer to Woodward's book, but to quote Colin Powell, making him an issue in the campaign. The conservative Wall Street Journal goes so far as to say that Powell could ostensibly help Kerry in the election. And so, what better way to neutralize Powell as an issue than to coopt him, to make him a part of the ticket.

Of course, it doesn't hurt that Powell has helped defang the devastating 60 Minutes portrait by allying himself squarely with the Bushies, as The Washington Post's Dan Morgan writes:

"Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, responding to a new book about the Bush administration's decision to go to war in Iraq, said yesterday he was closely involved with planning for the attack and had been as 'committed as anyone else' to toppling the government of Saddam Hussein.

"The book, 'Plan of Attack' by Bob Woodward, describes Powell as an opponent of the war strategy pushed by Vice President Cheney, and recounts that the Saudi ambassador, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, learned of the decision to go to war before Powell. But Powell said he was committed from the start to President Bush's war plan if diplomacy failed and that he was well informed about Bush's strategy.

"'My support was willing and it was complete, no matter how others might try to impose their policy wishes on my body,' Powell said in an interview with the Associated Press."

There are no African Americans in the United States Senate, despite the fact that the Democratic Party continues to garner upwards of 90 percent of the black vote (an astonishing 95 percent in the 2000 election). So far as I know, there is only one low priority Democrat running for the Senate in Illinois. There are no ther plans to recruit another. The Democratic Party (allegedly pro African American) has never nominated an African American on the Presidential ticket. And, of course, Colin Powell has approval ratings above 80 percent. A Powell Vice Presidency could put the African American vote into play for Republicans in a way never before witnessed. And that would be very, very bad for the Democratic Party. Then again, the Democrats have taken the African American vote for granted for so many years.

I have labored under the opinion that Dick Cheney will pull out due to "health problems" in early spring, or as the CIA leak - Valerie Plame hearings get thick -- whichever comes first -- and that the Republican Party will unveil Sir Rudy Giuliani as Dubya's running mate at the New York Convention, maximizing momentum, the big Mo. Bush already has Wyoming and the defense hawk oil magnate vote locked, Dick Cheney is essentially unuseful to the reelection, except, perhaps as an advisor. But Powell is far more formidable with swing voters, while Dubya cements the true believers.

We live in interesting times.

(ed note: because of work i won't be posting tommorrow, but I'll be back on Thursday)