The Next Administration

It is Friday in New York City and the sky is dark and heavy, suggesting a pregnant pause before the storm. Armed with a half full glass of Cutty Sark and Monteverdi on the radio, politics is in my crosshairs.

So, who will win the Veepstakes on both sides? The Machiavellian undermining and backroom conniving is already in full swing (ah, K-Street: your tax dollars at work) just in time as the cherry blossoms blossom in Georgetown. I think we can all agree, with strategic winks and nods, dear readers, that sometime within the next few months, Dick Cheney will announce that because of "health issues" (wink, wink), he will step down as Vice President, just in time for an exciting convention in Manhattan wherein all manner of mystery will be unveiled. Dubya will then be forced to find someone -- anyone -- who can make up for those massive Electoral College votes from Cheney's powerhouse native state of Wyoming (softly chuckles); what will the President ever do without Wyoming.

So, who? The Bush family is dynastic, or, as Kevin Phillips says in his book American Dynasty:

"The Bush family has never produced a doctor, teacher, scholar or lawyer of note. As far back as World War I, the family's single-minded focus has been on three major areas: intelligence, energy and national security. It is no coincidence that these three categories of Bush family operations were also three of the key enterprises of the American twentieth century."

That having been said, Bush will set the ground of inevitability for a Jeb Bush Presidency as soon as possible (if he achieves a second term). That's why Rudy Giuliani -- of the mercurial temperament, the maverick -- would be a bad choice: Rudy doesn't play well with others. But Giuliani did take care of his messy marriage problem, marrying Judith Nathan, which will please Bible Belters. And then there is the Republican Convention in New york, around the anniversary of 9/11. All of which suggest the inevitability of Rudy, who is New York royalty, the prestige-statesman factor alone is powerful.

But Giuliani cannot even deliver New york State, which leans heavily in favor of Kerry. Nor will he help the ticket with the conservative base. However, Rudy, an Ethnic Italian moderate could be of use with those all important Reagan Democrats, as he is considered a law and order moderate. Also, Giuliani has a ton of GOP IOU's from the mid term elections; elected Republicans all over the country would go to the mat for him in their districts. Finally -- and this is crass, forgive me -- the momentum of a convention coming off of 9/11 with Giuliani on the ticket would be massive.

Giuliani: 50-50 odds

Other players:

George Pataki: Pro: An old Bush dynasty ally; Con: Fucked up New York. Giuliani would be stronger. 90-1

Senator Danforth: Missouri is a swing state and, for some reason, this guy popped into my head. Great speaker. An honest man. Evangelical. Likeable. 75-1

Colin Powell: This would be a desperate Hail Mary Pass, but very, very possible. It would throw off the neocon power base and realign all manner of forces. One of those forces would be what the fuck would Democrats do if African Americans defected to the GOP. I mean, hey, there isn't a single African American senator, and look at all the plum jobs that blacks get with Republicans. Powell is dangerously popular, fiercely loyal to the Bush dynasty, and -- bonus! -- Alma Powell will not allow him to run for the Presidency, setting things up for Jeb in 2008. Possibly as much prestige as Giuliani. 50-50

Wild Card: There is always the possibility of a wild card that no one can predict. A business titan? (Not likely, not in this Enron climate). Chances are that if there is a wild card, he or she will be old and will come from Missouri, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Oregon or Ohio. And what of California and the Shwarzenegger factor: Is Cali in play? 65-1