Tuesday, November 02, 2004

What the Exit Polls Are Saying

Okay, that, and we're laboring under the assumption that Wonkette's exit poll data is reliable (we'll take her word for it, cause she links to us often and she wore a cute pumpkin-colored number on Tina Brown's show last week), what does this data mean? These are extremely raw exit polls. Sashimi raw. The election is still going on as The Corsair writes. :


"AZ 45-55
CO 48-51 (other numbers update K/B:Colorado: 48-50)
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48 (other numbers update K/B:OH: 50-49)
FL 51-48 (other numbers update: K/B FL: 50-49)
MICH 51-47
NM 50-48 (other numbers updateK/B:NM: 50-48)
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41 "

Several things leap off the page at me, spank me, and call me "cornbread" -- one, the margin in this raw exit poll in Pennsylvania is incredible. Mindblowing really. The polls had it neck and neck but the exit data is suggesting a ten point lead for Kerry. My guess -- if this is accurate -- is that Philadelphia came out, and, more likely young MTV age college kids and African Americans were the bulk of that turnout. But I'm sure Bill Clinton will take credit, and will want Secretary General payback. The Corsair can already see Bill Clinton spinning his importance in the New Mexico and Pennsylvania comeback (Clinton attended rallies in both states in the last week). If Kerry wins Arkansas, he can just hand over the UN Secretary General position to Clinton.

Second, Wisconsin? What the fuck? That looks like a blowout for Kerry. How did that happen? Did the Lutheran Scandanavian-Americans of Wisconsin and Minnesota all of a sudden go liberal? Did Jesse Ventura's apparent endorsement play well in St. Paul? Talk radio has been merciless to Kerry in Wisconsin for misstating the name of Lambeau Field, which is akin to taking the Lord's name in vain to a "cheesehead". Are those numbers right?

But, most important -- Kerry is winning in Florida?! Keep in mind -- this is very early, and, I hear, Dems tend to vote early -- but, Yo, if Kerry wins Florida, by anything remotely like a 51-48 margin then the election is over. Tonight. Before we go to bed. And Ohio is another shocker. Everything about these numbers -- if they are right -- are shocking and say that the story tomorrow will be "Large Urban Turnout Decides the Election."

The young urban crowd may have decided the election. 2004 may end up the year of the P Diddy.

1 comment:

The Corsair said...

so, the polls were wrong about ohio and I was so wrong about the youth vote. Can't trust those damn kids. Blogspot is acting up, so I don't know if I'll be posting. It does hurt, as Bush is just way more conservative than I am. In times like these I always remember the remark by Charlie Brown, "how can we lose when we're so sincere."