Will John McCain Win New Hampshire?



(image via nytimes)

New Hampshire is officially a swing state. An AP poll this week has Obama ahead -- amazingly -- 50%/43%. And Senator Hillary Clinton, who won New Hampshire in the Democrat primary, will be in the state to stump for Obama next week. Considering Senator John McCain's relationship with New Hampshire, that's saying something.

New Hampshire is like the Oscar voters in that the state loves to stick their middle finger in the eye of conventional wisdom. In 1996 conventional wisdom felt that Madonna -- who got a Golden Globe nomination for "Evita" -- should have gotten an Oscar nod and Courtney Love should have gotten one for "The People Versus Larry Flynt." Then, ideally, both would have gotten into a "sessy"-little-catfight on the red-carpet, culminating in both sweatily disrobed of their couture gowns, seeing no other alternative but to make out. Sweetly.

But back to New Hampshire (Exaggerated cough suggesting feigned detachment)...

-- New Hampshire consistently picks the GOP candidate that is the underdog. In 2008 the state launched McCain, and, a little further back in 2000, New Hampshire snubbed the Establishment candidate Dubya in favor of the Arizona Senator. The state is libertarian, contrarian and pro-military, all factors favoring McCain.

But the landscape has changed. Popular Governor Jean Shaheen is running a do-over election against Senator Sununu. In their 2002 match up Sununu narrowly won under a dark cloud of illegal phone-jamming. Presently in the polls Shaheen, a proven statewide vote-getter, is leading. That has helped Obama at the top of the ticket, and may give him an upset win in a state that McCain has had a long and fond relationship.

So -- Will McCain win New Hampshire? Who knows. But if McCain loses the "Live Free or Die" state, it would be a mighty blow to his campaign and probably presage an early end to the Presidential election in favor of Obama.