Sarah Palin In 2012?



(image via politico)

Inside the beltway, as the McCain campaign implodes (or reiterates itself erratically), there is talk of a "rogue" Governor Palin, not following orders from the top of the ticket. That, of course, has led to chatter that Sarah Palin, already writing off the campaign, is eyeing 2012. If she were to run, Governor Palin would have a firm grasp of the Evangelicals and the Pat Buchananite wing of the Republican Party.

Governor Palin is, to be sure, a "tough gal," a part of the "tough guy temperament" continuum that has brought America to the brink of fiscal and political ruin. Unilateralism; the financialization of America; anti-intellectualism; religious disdain; drill, baby, drill; the studious disdain of multilateralism. But Palin's rise -- like that of Pat Buchanan's improbable and ultimately unsuccessful ascent in '92 which depended upon the early 1990s recession -- probably depends on continuing financial instability by the 2012 election. While we would still gamble on former Governor Mitt Romney in 2012, Palin would be formidable.

As the Republican Party is a hierarchical party, it would be her turn. And provided Governor Palin uses these four years in the wilderness to surmount the foreign policy learning curve, she probably has a slight edge over Romney (Although we still predict Romney/ Jeb Bush as the Republican ticket in 2012, you heard it here first). From Politico:

"Sarah Palin may soon be free. Soon, she may not have the millstone of John McCain around her neck. And she can begin her race for president in 2012.

"Some are already talking about it. In careful terms. If John McCain loses next week, Sarah Palin 'has absolutely earned a right to run in 2012,' says Greg Mueller, who was a senior aide in the presidential campaigns of Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes. Mueller says Palin has given conservatives 'hope' and 'something to believe in.'

And even if the McCain-Palin ticket does win on Nov. 4 — and Mueller says it could — 'if McCain decides to serve for just one term, Sarah Palin as the economic populist and traditional American values candidates will be very appealing by the time we get to 2012.'

"It is clear that while trying to bond with voters, John McCain and Sarah Palin have not managed to bond with each other.

"... The discomfort between the two can be palpable. Chuck Todd, the NBC News political director, was in the room when Brian Williams interviewed Palin and McCain recently. 'There was a tenseness,' Todd said later. 'When you see the two of them together, the chemistry is just not there. You do wonder, is John McCain starting to blame her for things? Blaming himself? Is she blaming him?”

"I am guessing one and three. John McCain is blaming Palin for demonstrating her inexperience and lack of knowledge. And Palin is blaming McCain for running what she views as a bad campaign — a campaign that did not go after Barack Obama over the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and did not exploit Obama’s statement about how small-town people “cling” to guns and religion — and for never picking a clear message that had any traction with voters.

"But here’s the difference: If McCain loses, he doesn’t get to run again, and Palin does."

More here.