Is New York A Swing State?



(image via theelectoralmap)

Mindblowing. The Siena Research Institute today shows a razor-thin 5 point lead over McCain in reliable blue state New York! Even more mindblowing: the error margin is plus or minus four percent. Obama is down from an 18 Point lead in June. Looking at the poll, one metric that leapt out at The Corsair is the fact that 30% of those polled said that Obama was "totally unqualified" (as opposed to 17% who said McCain was unqualified) This was, in a sense, the argument Senator Hillary Clinton's camp made during the primary, and the fact that she is New York's junior Senator might have some weight in this poll (white New York women are, according to the poll, veering towards McCain). From Sienna:

"On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

"'Although New York has long been regarded as a safe state for the Democrats in presidential politics, likely voters in the Empire State are currently only giving Senator Obama a five-point cushion,' said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena New York Poll. 'The conventions are over. The running mates are set. And as voters begin to focus on the race, New York’s overwhelming Democratic enrollment advantage is not reflected in how voters tell Siena they plan to vote.'"

The Empire State, which has 31 electoral votes, has 5.5 million registered Democrats and only 2.9 million registered Republicans.

The Sienna poll was conducted on Sept. 8 through 10 via telephone -- land lines? -- with 626 likely New York state voters. With only 50 days left until election day we say, once more with gusto: Senator Barack Obama must appear on The Howard Stern Show! Please, make this happen.

More here.