Novak: GOP Strategists Concede They May Lose Georgia



(image via rockymountainnews)



Blogs -- like this one -- for months have been wondering aloud about the effects of the Libertarian candidacy of Bob Barr in Georgia. As a former Congressman, he is a well-known political commodity. And Senator McCain is not particularly loved by the Southern base. Also: Barack Obama beat Hillary there by significant numbers. Could, many have asked, Obama beat McCain in Georgia with aid from Barr's candidacy? Our favorite Dickensian villain, Robert Novak today writes:

"REPUBLICAN strategists now are privately conceding that the GOP could lose Georgia's 15 presidential electors for the first time since 1992 because of Bob Barr's ballot position as the Libertarian Party presidential candidate.

"The most recent Georgia survey by the polling firm InsiderAdvantage, conducted July 2, shows 46 percent for McCain, 44 percent for Obama and 4 percent for Barr. George W. Bush, who carried all 11 states of the old Confederacy in both 2000 and 2004, had 58 percent of Georgia's vote in the last election.

"Third-party presidential candidates almost always run more poorly in the election than their poll showings, but Barr as a former GOP congressman from Georgia might sustain support in his home state. He already has slipped a little in Georgia, based on his 5.6 percent standing in the June 19 InsiderAdvantage poll, when McCain had a lead of 1.6 percentage points."

We cannot fail to note that there have been skeptics of this possibility, most notably Thomas Schaller on The NYTimes Op Ed page. Still, Georgia is not inconceivable (and if Georgia falls early, it would be a bad night for McCain campaign headquarters) ...