Barack Obama Needs To Counterprogram Against Mitt Romney



Logically, Mitt Romney appears, on paper at least, to be the best choice for Senator John McCain (The Corsair judiciously sips "the fizzy"). This morning, for example, the second-most listened to conservative talk show host, Sean Hannity said that Romney would be the man he'd most like to see McCain pick. To be sure, McCain could veer to the center -- picking Lieberman, with whom he seems most comfortable on the campaign trail-- but that would leave his right flank unguarded, vulnerable, tender. And Senator McCain was never solid with the party base; the old boys never forgave him for Campaign Finance Reform (Exaggerated cough suggesting feigned detachment). Ron Paul's anti-convention will highlight that fact to McCain's detriment (especially in the Rocky Mountain West and the ever-Libertarianish Nevada).

No, chances are McCain will shrewdly pick Romney, with his aura of corporate competence and the serendipitous afterglow of the 2002 Salt Lake City Olympics, so favorably comparing against China's smoggy official coming out party. The Senator from Arizona will studiously ignore the labors of the Paul contingent. That having been said, that Romney probability gives Obama another advantage over Senator McCain. If it is, as it appears,likely that McCain picks Romney, then this gives Obama an opportunity to counterprogram with a running mate that would most contrast against Romney with the American electorate. Who can clean Romney's clock in a Presidential debate? Bayh, unlikely; Barry Schwitzer, possibly- maybe; Sibelius, meh; Kaine, not sure.

Beyond the debates: Who can most skillfully attack Romney from the Populist position? Mitt's political Kryptonite is his slightly over-polished surface, which, when contrasted against a populist -- say, a Huckabee -- looks to the average American like the last boss that laid them off (Exaggerated cough suggesting feigned detachment). Romney's matinee-idol good looks and smooth projection of corporate competence may actually be a hindrance -- not help -- to McCain, if a populist can, for example, pin the present economic woes on the thumoeideutic excesses of members of Romney's class. From the NYTimes:

"Conventional wisdom correctly suggests that Mr. McCain could benefit from a running mate who adds credibility on economic issues and excites the Republicans’ conservative base. Mr. Romney’s accomplishments in the private sector would be valuable in a discussion of jobs creation and economic growth, but he was attacked relentlessly in his campaign for Senate against Ted Kennedy for the layoffs and downsizing that occurred in companies he had acquired. At a time when voters are worried about their own job security, those same criticisms could pack greater punch this year.

"Mr. Romney’s ability to motivate the G.O.P. base is even more of an open question. While Mr. McCain is still trying to shore up his support among conservatives, there’s no evidence that Mr. Romney, who lost those voters to John McCain and Mike Huckabee in the primaries, would help close the sale. Already, several religious conservative leaders have come forward warning that naming Mitt Romney would be counterproductive. Indeed, Mr. McCain can still rally these voters on his own by talking about national security, tax cuts and energy policy, or by scaring them about Barack Obama. But it’s hard to see how Mr. Romney makes that rally any easier."

Frankly, we think Carly Fiorina would be a more formidable running mate for McCain, although a maneuver that politically radical is alien to McCain's southwestern conservative mindset. Fiorina, a former CEO of a Forbes 400 company who has had graduate studies in the Medieval Age, is almost more Hillary than Hillary, poised, sharp, super-smart, and that appeals to many suburban white women -- a demographic that Obama has had some trouble with because of the contentious primary. Fiorina would also be a clear signal that McCain has a sense of the winds of political change in this election cycle. Fiorina is young and fresh and, because of her work in the private sector, exudes more "competence" -- and "executive-experience" than even those young, oft-touted Governors Jindal and Palen, who are probably not-yet-ready-for-Prime-Time. Those young lions need time for "seasoning."

But McCain will probably pick Romney, the more predictable and conservative choice, with an eye for Fiorina as his Chief of Staff should he win. His loss.