How To Think About Obama In Israel



Politico takes a look at the Israel leg of Senator Obama's overseas trip. Curiously enough, the visit will probably have little to no effect effect on the voting patterns of American Jews, who, as Walter Russell Mead says in the piece, “almost always vote heavily Democratic, and my guess is that Obama will carry the American Jewish vote regardless of what his polling is in Israel.”

As McCain will probably win in reddish Florida, a state where Jewish support could ostensibly make or break a candidate, the main political plus that Obama gets from the trip is to show his commitment to the special U.S.-Israel relationship. That statement of commitment to Israel's security, which will be given to Ohlmert, Ehud Barak and Netanyahu as well as in some form of public address, will probably allay some of the significant fears that foreign policy intellectuals, evangelicals and pro-Israel voters have over his flip-flop at AIPAC on an "undivided Jerusalem." Obama has some heavy lifting to do. Senator Clinton was very popular with this crowd, having forged her bona fides as First Lady in the Clinton White House as well as in the United States Senate. The post also mentions Senator Lieberman's support for McCain, which doesn't help Obama, as a factor in his low poll numbers. And then, probably only peripherally, there have been the persistent noxious rumors of Obama being a Muslim as well as Reverend Wright's caustic remarks that have to be taken into account. That Israeli's don't "personally" know Senator Obama -- this is his first visit there, as opposed to McCain -- also works against him.

Obama has his work cut out for him. From Politico:

"Polls there show Israelis prefer John McCain by as much as 20 percentage points.

"...In the past month, one poll found 36 percent of Israelis preferred McCain, versus 27 percent for Obama, while in another, 46 percent of respondents said a McCain presidency “would be better for Israel,” compared to 20 percent who said the same about Obama.

"'Israelis see Bush as having been better to Israel than almost any president before has been,' said Albert Baumgarten, a Jewish history professor at Bar-Ilan University in Ramat-Gan, Israel. Israelis, he said, 'feel almost as if he’s their president.'

"Baumgarten, a dual Israeli-U.S. citizen who’s supporting Obama, said Israelis believe McCain is more likely to continue pursuing the Bush administration’s foreign policy agenda.

"He’s also benefited from the support of Sen. Joe Lieberman, the former-Democrat-turned-independent, whose Orthodox Judaism and staunch support of Israel make him a popular figure in Israel. Some Israelis, said Jerusalem-based pollster Mitchell Barak, count against Obama 'that the Democratic Party is not a welcome place for Joe Lieberman.'"

The post here.