On Sino-Japanese Relations



(image via skimountaineer)

China's adroit use of their growing soft power in the Third World -- locations where terrorists lurk -- parallels Donald Rumsfeld's stark admission that he doesn't even understand the term (see paragraph 2). In the March/April 2006 issue of Foreign Affairs Kent E. Calder has an incredibly interesting article on Sino-Japanese relations.

As the destinies of the Taiwan and the Koreas (as well as, increasingly, and disturbingly, Russia's) become more economically intertwined with China, conservative Japan must be feeling rather claustophobic. The Corsair has always been of the opinion that the remilitarization of Japan ought to be a vital goal of American foreign policy. The Sino-American alliance is the linchpin of our Pacific policy. (The Corsair sips a glass of Sake)And China's economic aid package today to their Pacific allies should be a wake-up call to the masters of American-Pacific policy.

The cautious handlers of Beijing make few foreign policy errors. One such error, though, may be their over-agressive mock charges at an increasingly nationalistic Japan (for further reference see Chinese aggression in the Cunxao gas fields). As we get older we have resigned ourself to the belief -- like Hobbes and Machiavelli pronounced -- that the primary motivating force that activates the Will of nation-states is fear. Enter, Stage Right: a claustrophbic Japan.

Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution is thorougly obsolete. The nationalists control the Japanese Diet and public opinion is growing increasingly anti-Chinese. The most recent incarnation of Chinese aggression emanates from the fact that Prime Minister Koizumi's conservative government has ties to the political leadership in the 30s and 40s, which was part of what the mandarins in Beijing refer to as "The War Against Japanese Agression." In addition, there's the thorny matter of Koizumi's provocative fourth visit to Yasukuni (which, we cannot fail to note, was opposed by 5 of the 6 major Japanese papers and 6 former Prime Ministers).

If the United States were to signal that the Japanese Diet's abolition of Article 9 would be amenable, of course, China would act aggressively. That is, unless the United States strongly opposed it. Diplomacy would ensue. As a result, the United States would offer two possibilities to China. One: Allow Japanese remilitariazation, which would serve American interests greatly by providing a check on Chinese power. Two: Table re-militarization (for now) but allow Japan a seat on the Security Council. As Japan supplies 20 percent of the UN budget (China supplies a paltry 3 %), and the alternative is a nuclear Japan, the answer is obvious. And America gains a friend for life on the Security Council.

But we digress. Says Calder:

"China and Japan, the giants of Asia, account for nearly three-quarters of the region's economic activity and more than half of the region's military spending. Despite their deep economic ties and a doubling of their bilateral trade in the past five years, their relationship is increasingly strained, with dangerous implications for the United States and the world at large.

"Historically, relations between Japan and China were clearly structured. One country was always more prosperous or powerful than the other. Before the nineteenth century, China was usually dominant; since the Meiji Restoration, in 1868, Japan has generally been preeminent. The prospect that China and Japan could both be powerful and affluent at the same time has only recently emerged, largely because while China's economy and influence have grown rapidly, Japan's have remained stagnant. China has nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missiles, and its military budget has grown by double-digit rates for 17 consecutive years. Although Japan has a relatively low military profile, with its 'no-war' constitution and strong alliance with the United States, its defense-relevant technology is sophisticated and it has recently become more proactive. The stage is now set for a struggle between a mature power and a rising one."

More here.