Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Obama Needs The Phildelphia Region And The Lehigh Valley



(image via musto)

Politico publishes an excellent guide to tonight's primary election results in Pennsylvania. Among the other bits of advice offered not to cheer at the early precinct results. It is later in the evening, when Southeast Pennsylvania's results come in, with their small towns with blue collar workers, that the gladiatorial fundament will be fully joined (Exaggerated cough suggesting feigned detachment). Also, Politico being Politico (The Corsair pops a bottle of the fizzy), gives a wondrous polysci-geek analysis of the 2002 Democratic Gubernatorial primary between rivals Ed Rendell and Bob Casey, and how it is symbolic of tonight's fight among their Presidential proxies:

"Rendell beat Casey by winning only 10 counties out of 67 in the state. The governor won Philadelphia by 160,000 votes, and swept the four suburban counties—Bucks, Chester, Delaware and Montgomery—with 80-90 percent of the vote. He carried the Lehigh Valley, which includes Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton, by a 2-to-1 margin. He edged out Casey in Penn State’s Centre County by five points.

"Casey won the other major population centers in Southwest and Central Pennsylvania, but not by enough to offset Rendell’s advantage in the populous Southeast.

"To duplicate Rendell’s victory, Obama would need to show a similar level of strength as Rendell in the Philadelphia region and in the Lehigh Valley. But no polls have found him getting anywhere close."


More here.

No comments: