Obama's Maneuvering Room



(image via politico)

Did you think Obama would make it all the way to the home stretch? Three months away from the Democratic Presidential primaries -- the conference playoffs, if you will -- we are now nestled deep in the "maneuvering" segment of the race. Carefully choreographed, the candidates are assuming their final postures (the quixotic Kucinich's final posture is, to be sure, "Bust of Dying Gladiator").

Edwards is staking it all on Iowa, where labor unions and student activists have to put him over. Edwards, fully cognizant of this political reality, has all but lived in the state for the last 4 years.

Romney, on the other hand, hangs or falls in New Hampshire, his next door neighbor. Expect him to get nasty and personal -- but delivered in a highly polished and vaguely synthetioc manner -- as Giuliani's english begins to rise in the maverick state. If he fails there then how can he hope to be a national candidate. Giuliani needs to break up a Romney sweep in the first 4 states -- Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. If Romney wins all 4, then all the political oxygen will have been exhausted before Rudy can do damage on Super Tuesday where his national status is an advantage in the big ad markets. And. of course, Obama must needs the heavy African-American voter concentrations in South Carolina, and, to a lesser degree, he needs to make a good showing in Iowa (where he is presently the front runner).

If Obama were to win in Iowa and South Carolina -- and that is not an inconceivable possibility -- he would throw Hillary Clinton's meticulously constructed aura of inevitability into chaos -- right on the cusp of "Super Tuesday," where Camp Clinton wants to clinch this damn thing. And that, for Camp Obama, would be a very good thing.

From the standpoint of trying to separate Hillary Clinton from more and more African-American voters -- as we must now view Senator Obama's maneuverings -- this new development is a smart, if cynical, political move. From Politico:

"Barack Obama’s move to block a controversial nominee to the Federal Election Commission could help the presidential candidate burnish his civil rights bona fides and woo black voters away from Hillary Clinton.

"Obama and Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) this week put a hold on Senate confirmation proceedings for FEC nominee Hans von Spakovsky, who has been accused of diluting minority voting power during his time as a Justice Department lawyer."