Tuesday, May 13, 2008

How Badly Will Obama Lose West Virginia?



(image via huffingtonpost)

Senator Barack Obama will lose West Virginia tonight. And he will lose bad. The margins are anywhere from 40 percent to -- as Bill Clinton has suggested -- 80 percent. Every poll that The Corsair has seen shows upwards of 30 percent margins in Clinton's favor.

Of course, in the grand scheme of things this doesn't really matter: Obama is, for all intents and purposes, the nominee. Still, Why will Obama lose when he has had millions in free press as the presumptive nominee (Even Clinton loyalist Carville says so)? Evan as she campaigns, Senator Clinton is sending out a video to big money supporters all but preparing them for her exit.

So -- why is West Virginia going to vote overwhelmingly for someone who has already lost and is about to leave the race? Well, race. From The Los Angeles Times:

"The concerns of party members who live amid this rolling landscape of soybean fields, poultry plants and retirement cabins mirror those of many white Democrats nationwide: Some fear voters will be turned off by Obama's black heritage. Others, they say, will find reason to doubt his patriotism or will perceive him to be an elitist.

"It remains unclear how racial unease will factor into election-day decisions come November. Those hidden impulses are elusively difficult to capture in polling. But seasoned Democratic players here reckon that some racially tinged voting will inevitably occur far beyond Hardy County's cresting hills."


Reading this today, honestly, and preparing for tonight's blowout made me quite sad. This Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky trending sucks the oxygen out of one's idealistic optimism.

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