Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Media-Whore D'oeuvres
"The passionate note surfaced amid the flotsam of a shipwrecked marriage. It was written in broken English by a woman to herself, pouring out her love for a man called Tony. 'Oh, shit, oh, shit,' she wrote. 'Whatever why I’m so so missing Tony. Because he is so so charming and his clothes are so good. He has such good body and he has really really good legs Butt . . . And he is slim tall and good skin. Pierce blue eyes which I love. Love his eyes. Also I love his power on the stage . . . and what else and what else and what else . . . ' The woman was Wendi Deng Murdoch, the Chinese wife of the Australian media mogul Rupert Murdoch. The note, not revealed until now, could have been one of the few pieces of evidence in their surprise divorce last year, had the case come to trial. 'Tony' was the former prime minister of Great Britain, Tony Blair. Later, some would claim that Rupert felt betrayed by the close relationship between Wendi and Tony, who was his trusted companion and powerful political ally. Others would insist that Wendi and Tony were just friends, and that the handsome statesman was merely comforting the lonely wife of an absent and distant older husband.
Rupert Murdoch is one of the wealthiest individuals in America. His empire includes newspapers around the globe, the 21st Century Fox movie studio, the Fox TV network, and the publishing house HarperCollins. In the years between the Murdochs’ marriage, in 1999, and their divorce, 14 years later, a story emerged that could have come right off the pages of one of the tabloids produced by News Corporation, Murdoch’s media conglomerate, complete with all the usual lurid ingredients: sex, lies, power, money, charges of infidelity. The dénouement began with the backstairs rumblings of servants. Murdoch, 82, had long heard rumors that his 45-year-old wife was involved in extramarital affairs. But when those rumors grew to include too familiar a relationship with Blair, according to a former News Corp. employee in the U.K., 'that was something that really took him aback.' After all, through the power of The Sun, and his other London newspapers, the Times and News of the World, Murdoch had virtually put Blair into office, and Blair had become not only a valued friend but also the godfather of Grace, the older of Rupert and Wendi’s two daughters. (Through a representative, Tony Blair declined to be interviewed. After the announcement of the divorce last June, The Hollywood Reporter published a categorical denial from Blair’s office.)
‘She got careless,' the source continues. 'And for whatever reason, these affairs . . . they started to multiply and be amplified over the last year. In particular, the two relationships that have been commented on [in the press]: Eric Schmidt [the executive chairman of Google] and Tony Blair. Really shocking. Because when you look at the Blair piece, she would make up an excuse to be somewhere. She would say she’s going up to the ranch in Carmel with a girlfriend. And the girlfriend would leave, and Mr. Blair would turn up, and they would have a day or night. . . . There was staff around, and when you’re dealing with Tony Blair, there’s secret service, and arrangements need to be made.'" (VanityFair)"Regarding Rachel, I have to consider my readers comments. You make good points. Why did I always feel so tolerant and understanding toward Rachel, no matter her appalling sometimes criminal behavior. Perhaps I thought of her as an obscenely naughty sister who one would always cherish, despite a certain exasperation. When Rachel and her twin brother were infants their biological mother dropped the... defenseless duo at an orphanage. Rachel would not learn the identity of this ‘mother’ for many years, and by the time she did she no longer cared what her reasons were. As a kid all she knew was that a Mrs Wood, a wealthy Westchester widow had taken her and her brother home to a mansion with lawns and a lake. 'They are a pair! I love symmetry!' Mrs Wood was fond of repeating, after too many sherries. Mrs Wood adored babies, but soon after Rachel and her brother began to talk she grew disinterested of these tiresomely needy children. If Rachel or her brother exhaled too loudly, Mrs Wood would sigh, 'All this noise!' and dismiss them to their bedrooms. Before long Mrs Wood purchased a pair of Yorkshire Terriers and the twins were handed to nannies. The twins were not abused, they were not maltreated, in fact, they were not paid much mind at all, and they felt it acutely. With each other they never verbalized their troubles, but some nights they slept in the same bed, falling asleep holding hands. The twins lived in cocoons of ice thick like winter lakes, emotionally frozen like bright orange fish in blue ice." (Christina Oxenberg)
"I went down to Michael’s for lunch with Dr. Mary Pulido and Dr. Penny Grant. Dr. Pulido is the Executive Director of the New York Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Children. Regular NYSD readers are familiar with our coverage of some of the NYSPCC’s fundraising efforts. Dr. Grant is a pediatrician who works entirely in the field of assisting abused and neglected children.I did not suffer child abuse growing up, although I did have a father who had a violent temper which was an embedded part of the fabric of family life. He exercised it enough that it was fearsome to this child. Although in retrospect, aside from that 'temper,' he was never cruel or unkind or abusive toward me with his words or actions. I was never in danger, although the implied threat (violent anger) was never distant in my thoughts. Neither was he demonstratively affectionate, although he kept a framed verse about his 'sweet son' on his bureau. As a child I was struck by the irony when I read it because otherwise I never would have known. It is significant that both my mother and father experienced abuse at an early age. They were children at the beginning of the 20th century -- my father in New York City, and my mother in Massachusetts. My mother was orphaned (along with five siblings) when her young mother died during the great Flu Epidemic of 1918. My mother was 10 or eleven and the second oldest." (NYSD)
"Cossack militiamen attacked Pussy Riot in downtown Sochi on Wednesday, setting upon the feminist punk group with whips when several members—including Masha Alyokhina, in the pink mask—emerged from a restaurant clad in brightly colored clothing and balaclavas.
A guitar was smashed, but no serious injuries were immediately apparent. Alyokhina and her bandmate Nadya Tolokonnikova, who just finished a tour of the U.S. after being released from Russian prison, were briefly detained by authorities yesterday." (Gawker)
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Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Media-Whore D'Oeuvres
"Last week, several events took place that were important to their respective regions and potentially to the world. Russian government officials suggested turning Ukraine into a federation, following weeks of renewed demonstrations in Kiev. The Venezuelan government was confronted with violent and deadly protests. Kazakhstan experienced a financial crisis that could have destabilized the economies of Central Asia. Russia and Egypt inked a significant arms deal. Right-wing groups in Europe continued their political gains. Any of these events had the potential to affect the United States. At different times, lesser events have transfixed Americans. This week, Americans seemed to be indifferent to all of them. This may be part of a cycle that shapes American interest in public affairs. The decision to raise the debt ceiling, which in the last cycle gripped public attention, seemed to elicit a shrug. The United States was founded as a place where private affairs were intended to supersede public life. Public service was intended less as a profession than as a burden to be assumed as a matter of duty -- hence the word "service." There is a feeling that Americans ought to be more involved in public affairs, and people in other countries are frequently shocked by how little Americans know about international affairs or even their own politics. In many European countries, the state is at the center of many of the activities that shape private life, but that is less true in the United States. The American public is often most active in public affairs when resisting the state's attempts to increase its presence, as we saw with health care reform. When such matters appear settled, Americans tend to focus their energy on their private lives, pleasures and pains. Of course, there are times when Americans are aroused not only to public affairs but also to foreign affairs. That is shaped by the degree to which these events are seen as affecting Americans' own lives. There is nothing particularly American in this. People everywhere care more about things that affect them than things that don't. People in European or Middle Eastern countries, where another country is just a two-hour drive away, are going to be more aware of foreign affairs. Still, they will be most concerned about the things that affect them. The French or Israelis are aware of public and foreign affairs not because they are more sophisticated than Americans, but because the state is more important in their lives, and foreign countries are much nearer to their homes. If asked about events far away, I find they are as uninterested and uninformed as Americans. The United States' geography, obviously, shapes American thinking about the world. The European Peninsula is crowded with peoples and nation-states. In a matter of hours you can find yourself in a country with a different language and religion and a history of recent war with your own. Americans can travel thousands of miles using their own language, experiencing the same culture and rarely a memory of war. Northwestern Europe is packed with countries. The northeastern United States is packed with states. Passing from the Netherlands to Germany is a linguistic, cultural change with historical memories. Traveling from Connecticut to New York is not. When Europeans speak of their knowledge of international affairs, their definition of international is far more immediate than that of Americans. American interest is cyclical, heavily influenced by whether they are affected by what goes on. After 9/11, what happened in the Islamic world mattered a great deal. But even then, it went in cycles. The degree to which Americans are interested in Afghanistan -- even if American soldiers are still in harm's way -- is limited. The war's outcome is fairly clear, the impact on America seems somewhat negligible and the issues are arcane." (STRATFOR)
"Chelsea Handler is one of the few Americans in the world who would take a trip to Africa and call the elephant camp she visited 'one of the lamest parts.' But, she says, as we sit down to lunch in an empty bar at the Four Seasons with her dogs (one is hers, one belongs to her travel companion who she frequently reminds me is a lesbian), the safari was a different story. 'I have never drunk more in my entire life than on that safari, because you are sitting in that car all day long,' she says. "You can't get out." (Because of the lions and other carnivorous wild animals roaming the environs. She has photos of lions eating a dead animal to prove it.)A waiter approaches and she orders margaritas for both of us. In an oversized tote bag swimming with loose paper, Handler somehow easily locates pages from her forthcoming book of travel essays, Uganda Be Kidding Me. She wants to show me photos from the trip of herself and her friends peeing off the sides of various modes of transit -- a Jeep here, a boat there.'I have 85 pictures of me peeing,' she says as she takes me through the photos. "This is me peeing off a boat, in Botswana peeing off a Jeep, my sister and my cousin peeing, Sue'-- who works with her -- 'peeing.' She laughs. 'It was crazy.' Handler is just as put together as she is crazy. The author of the memoir Are You There, Vodka? It's Me, Chelsea's party girl persona suggests otherwise, but it's hardly a secret that she has to be wildly hard-working and smart to run a talk show on E!, Chelsea Lately, that attracts more women in the 18 to 34 demo than any of her competitors on network television. Four books, three of which flew to number one on the New York Times' Best Seller list, contribute to the legend. (Grand Central Publishing gave Handler her own imprint several years ago.) When she's performing stand-up or hosting her show, she's certainly putting on a bit of an act -- but only to a degree. She really does love to drink (we both have two strong margaritas before two in the afternoon the day we meet) " (Papermag)
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"It was a sunny day, yesterday in New York. Cold, but ... it’s winter. Hard getting around in places, but it was a national holiday and so many offices were closed, as well as schools, so it was quieter. Another snowstorm is predicted at the time of this writing (midnight). People are complaining about it all the time now. They’ve had enough. I, who was looking forward to lots of snow, and loved it when it came, have joined the aforementioned. Well, it’s another month until it’s official Spring, and we may not see a speck of it until then (or after). Although now I’m concentrating on the light. On December 21, it was dark at 4:45 PM. Now it’s light until almost six and in a little more than three weeks it’s Daylight Savings Time!! Looking forward. New York Fashion Week has come and gone (remember?) and now the social calendar is about to come to life again. One of the annual events now on the calendar is the PEN American Center Authors’ Evenings which are occurring in a number of private homes through March 11th. I counted a total of 32 of these dinners on the schedule. It’s a literary evening in that authors are guests of honor, and they talk about his or her work with the guests. The list of authors is often distinguished and widely varied from Jonathan Ames and Daniel Bergner’s 'You Were Never Really Here; What Do Women Want?' to 'Lawrence In Arabia' by Scott Anderson to Billy Collins’ 'Aimless Love: New and Selected Poems' to Linda Fairstein’s latest mystery 'Death Angel,' to Jeffrey Toobin’s 'The Oath: The Obama White House and the Supreme Court' to James Salter’s 'All That Is' and two dozen more. It also a fundraising event for PEN American Center The ticket can run into the four figures." (NYSD)
"Recently, our nation’s financial chieftains have been feeling a little unloved. Venture capitalists are comparing the persecution of the rich to the plight of Jews at Kristallnacht, Wall Street titans are saying that they’re sick of being beaten up, and this week, a billionaire investor, Wilbur Ross, proclaimed that 'the 1 percent is being picked on for political reasons.' Ross's statement seemed particularly odd, because two years ago, I met Ross at an event that might single-handedly explain why the rest of the country still hates financial tycoons – the annual black-tie induction ceremony of a secret Wall Street fraternity called Kappa Beta Phi. 'Good evening, Exalted High Council, former Grand Swipes, Grand Swipes-in-waiting, fellow Wall Street Kappas, Kappas from the Spring Street and Montgomery Street chapters, and worthless neophytes!' It was January 2012, and Ross, wearing a tuxedo and purple velvet moccasins embroidered with the fraternity’s Greek letters, was standing at the dais of the St. Regis Hotel ballroom, welcoming a crowd of two hundred wealthy and famous Wall Street figures to the Kappa Beta Phi dinner. Ross, the leader (or 'Grand Swipe') of the fraternity, was preparing to invite 21 new members — 'neophytes,' as the group called them — to join its exclusive ranks. Looking up at him from an elegant dinner of rack of lamb and foie gras were many of the most famous investors in the world, including executives from nearly every too-big-to-fail bank, private equity megafirm, and major hedge fund. AIG CEO Bob Benmosche was there, as were Wall Street superlawyer Marty Lipton and Alan 'Ace' Greenberg, the former chairman of Bear Stearns. And those were just the returning members. Among the neophytes were hedge fund billionaire and major Obama donor Marc Lasry and Joe Reece, a high-ranking dealmaker at Credit Suisse. [To see the full Kappa Beta Phi member list, click here.] All told, enough wealth and power was concentrated in the St. Regis that night that if you had dropped a bomb on the roof, global finance as we know it might have ceased to exist. During his introductory remarks, Ross spoke for several minutes about the legend of Kappa Beta Phi – how it had been started in 1929 by 'four C+ William and Mary students'; how its crest, depicting a 'macho right hand in a proper Savile Row suit and a Turnbull and Asser shirtsleeve,' was superior to that of its namesake Phi Beta Kappa (Ross called Phi Beta Kappa’s ruffled-sleeve logo a 'tacit confession of homosexuality'); and how the fraternity’s motto, 'Dum vivamus edimus et biberimus,' was Latin for 'While we live, we eat and drink.' On cue, the financiers shouted out in a thundering bellow: 'DUM VIVAMUS EDIMUS ET BIBERIMUS.'" (NYMag)
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Media-Whore D'oeuvres
"What to do after a full day of watching shows? Let's go to the movies! On Wednesday, The Cinema Society gave us a welcome break from the front row to catch a screening of TriStar Pictures' Pompeii at the Crosby Street Hotel. The Paul W.S. Anderson flick stars Game of Thrones' Kit Harington, Emily Browning, and Kiefer Sutherland and tells the tale of a slave turned gladiator who finds himself in a race against time to save his true love. As Mount Vesuvius erupts, he fights to to save his lady as Pompeii crumbles around him. And you thought fashion week was stressful! The Cinema Society gang hitting the screening included Paul Haggis, Carrie Preston, Matt Harvey, Olivier Theyskens, Lindsay Ellingson, Karen Elson (who came directly from sitting front row at Anna Sui), Julie Henderson, Sante D’Orazio, Louisa Krause, Tabitha Simmons, Cory Bond, Alex Lundqvist, Emily DiDonato, RJ King, Tobian Sorensen, and Pat Cleveland. (Who knew models were so into killer volcanos?) After the screening guests carried on to the cozy penthouse of the East Village Standard where they were the first to preview Grey Goose Le Melon. Now back to the shows... Pompeii explodes into theatres on Feb 21st." (Fashionweekdaily)
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"Today is the last day of New York Fashion Week. I didn’t get to any shows this year, for the first time in many. Ellin Saltzman, who knows the market and the business, is the best commentator around when it comes to explaining what she sees and how she thinks it applies to the customer. Me, I wouldn’t know the first thing about it. In the earlier years, I went to the tents in Bryant Park. There was an excitement about the place; the thrill of the new and the never-seen-before as well, and the thrill of being in New York which has long been the center of American fashion with its century-old garment industry. The Shows move to Lincoln Center expanded and institutionalized the week, and the business of showing. Now it’s an international business in and of itself, laced with current contemporary celebrities whose clothes are more like costumes half the time, and something of a bore. This year a lot of designers (and there are a lot of them) are going to other venues, many of which are downtown. So the sense of a center, a convocation of fashion, of a core, that was provided by the temporary tents in Bryant Park, has been diffused and scattered." (NYSD)
Saturday, February 15, 2014
Media-Whore D'Oeuvres
"The news media seem to have discovered something that economic wonks and number crunchers have understood for quite a while: How much richer the super-rich are than everyone else, including the merely rich. Mathematically speaking, the difference between poor and rich is much smaller than the chasm separating the well-off from the stupendously wealthy. We aren't discussing income inequality, Obamacare or stagnant wages. I am aware that the poor in this country have no discretionary income, and that there are many disadvantages to being lower income in the U.S.: bad health care, poor nutrition, lower educational opportunities, limited economic mobility, even a shorter lifespan. At least statistically, the differences between the uberwealthy and the merely well-off can be traced to three issues: 1. The rise of finance: The wealthiest 0.01 percent include many folks from the world of finance. The financial collapse didn't have a very long lasting effect on this. You can argue about the impact of hedge-fund billionaires in a variety of areas, but this much is beyond debate: They have thrown off the bell curve when it comes to income distribution among the very wealthy. 2. Stock ownership: 'The richer you are, the more likely your riches come from stocks, not salary,' as Derek Thompson of the Atlantic wrote. The very wealthy aren't so much well-paid as well-optioned. Some are entrepreneurs who built vast new businesses; others are chief executive officers and other senior executives who run major corporations. The bottom line is that big stock-option packages are major contributors to vast riches. 3. Taxes: The superwealthy pay lots of taxes in actual dollars. On a percentage basis, though, not so much. Indeed, the wealthier you are, the more likely the bulk of your income comes from capital gains. These are taxed at about half the rate of wages and salary for a comparable high earner. According to the Internal Revenue Service, the wealthiest 400 people derived half their income from capital gains. Those in the top 0.01 percent not only earn much more than the 1 percent but also get to keep much more of what they earn." (Bloomberg)
"It is after 3pm on a Friday when I walk into Bar do Beto, an old-fashioned Ipanema restaurant, but the place is full of diners enjoying a long, languid lunch. Glenn Greenwald is sitting in the corner, squinting crossly at his laptop. He is dressed in a T-shirt, long striped swimming shorts and flip-flops, which is something of a relief because, in the hottest Rio de Janeiro summer in decades, I am also wearing shorts. Since the day last June when he first met Edward Snowden, a National Security Agency (NSA) analyst-turned-whistleblower Greenwald has kept up a regime of 16-hour workdays, combing through thousands of documents passed on by Snowden, writing dozens of stories for the Guardian and other papers, sniping at his critics on Twitter, and setting up a media venture with a billionaire backer. In the process, Greenwald has become, perhaps, the most famous journalist of his generation. His reputation in the US is somewhat mixed, in part as a result of his abrasive approach to political debate, but in parts of Europe and Latin America he is considered the new incarnation of Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein. Greenwald, 46, has lived in Rio for almost a decade, since he met his soon-to-be husband David Miranda on a holiday to the Brazilian city. 'This was our place when we first met eight or nine years ago,' Greenwald says of the restaurant. 'We lived a couple of blocks away and we always came here. Then they did this massive renovation and we kind of gave up on it for a few years. But we came back and the food was fantastic.' Greenwald tells me he was in here a few nights earlier. In an event that underlines his new status as an international leftwing celebrity, the actor and playwright Wallace Shawn had invited Greenwald to see The Designated Mourner, his play about shrinking political space in a once-liberal land, when it was showing in New York last year. As Greenwald has not travelled to the US since the Snowden story broke, Shawn came to Rio to put on a performance for him. 'Incredibly riveting and thought-provoking,' Greenwald says of the play, which was performed in a theatre rented for the occasion. Afterwards, Greenwald brought cast and crew to Bar do Beto to thank them.As we open the menus, we are confronted with the paradox of Brazilian cuisine." (FT)
"Three remakes of 1980s movies are arriving in theaters today, but neither Robocop, About Last Night, or Endless Love is projected to be a major box office success, and I doubt you're surprised: Lately, it seems like movie remakes have been arriving — and underperforming — with greater frequency, from Carrie to Total Recall to Footloose. Why, then, are studios still so determined to make them? Here are four of the big reasons why the remake trend shows no sign of waning (alas). 1. Because remakes appease shareholders. Imagine you're a studio executive at Fox, and you've got to go in and pitch next year's slate to a bunch of shareholders and money men. Do you tell them that for February 2015, you've got an original haunted house movie starring Sam Rockwell and Rosemarie DeWitt? Or do you tell them you've cast those two stars in a remake of Poltergeist? It's the latter, a known quantity, that will put your investors at ease: Since these remakes are of movies that were presumably successful the first time around, they feel like less of a gamble. Studio executives have a short half-life, and angry investors can be a thorn in their sides — just look at how hedge funder Daniel Loeb hammered Sony in the press after original pictures After Earth and White House Down flopped — so green-lighting a remake or two is like throwing them red meat. If you want to keep your job and cover your ass, it's what you do. 2. Everything is now based on something else. Look ahead to the month of March, and virtually every single film debuting in wide release is based on a pre-existing property, from Divergent and Noah (both derived from literary sources) to Need for Speed (based on a video game) to Mr. Peabody and Sherman (adapted from the old cartoon). This is partly because studios are reluctant to take a risk on a property that hasn't already proven itself in some format, but plenty of remakes are generated from years of passive development, too: Studio readers (who are tasked with finding movie-ready concepts in new books, graphic novels, etc., or the studio's own back catalogue) will recommend library titles for remake consideration, executives will then float those properties on open-assignment lists they send out to the agencies, and if someone comes in and pitches a take they like, then everyone is off to the races." (NyMag)
"You do not have to look far in Africa to see the influence of reggae music. Once I met a Tuareg tribesman in the Sahara Desert who proudly played me a Bob Marley ringtone on his cell phone. Reggae music swept ’round the world in the 1970s, then receded a bit in most places. It still lives large in Africa. There is great reverence for the Jamaican classics, but there are also many lively local scenes. Reggae is music for the dispossessed, and Africa itself plays a leading role in reggae’s narrative. In reggae mythology, Africa is the Promised Land, the destined homeland where the African diaspora will someday be repatriated. Africa—and Ethiopia in particular—is the “Land of Zion' sung about in so many reggae songs. Reggae has its own code and language, infused largely with the ideology of the Rastafarians—followers of a spiritual system that arose in the 1930s in Jamaica. A big influence on the Rastafarians was Marcus Garvey, a Jamaican political leader in the 1920s who led a Back to Africa movement among descendants of slaves throughout the Americas. Rastafarians regard Garvey as a prophet who predicted that one day a black man would be crowned king in Africa and would bring deliverance to dark-skinned people everywhere. 'Follow, follow, follow, follow Marcus Garvey’s footsteps,' sang reggae singer Burning Spear. And where exactly was Garvey going? 'We’re leaving Babylon, we’re going to our father’s land,' Bob Marley told us in 'Exodus.' Not Babylon, Long Island, mind you, but the metaphorical one where, as Marley sang, 'the system is the vampire'—the wicked place that embodies all of what’s wrong with Western culture. Babylon, as Steel Pulse said, 'makes the rules . . . where my people suffer.'ast November, I had some business in Ethiopia, but I went a couple of days early. We know much about the influence of Ethiopia on the Rastafarians. I was curious to see the impact of the Rastafarian movement on Ethiopia. Rastafarians encourage their followers to pick up and head to Ethiopia, to repatriate. Underneath reggae’s cool backbeat rhythms are endless messages to get thee back to Zion. Billions of dollars worth of that message have been repeated over and over, all around the planet, for the past 40 years. With more than a million Rastafarians in the world now, shouldn’t Ethiopia be teeming with Rastas? Well, 'teeming' isn’t quite the word, but there is a thriving community." (VanityFair)
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Media-Whore D'oeuvres
An Iranian guard in front of the Kharg replenishment ship in Port Sudan in 2012. The Kharg extends the range of Iranian warships by carrying essential supplies, including fuel.(ASHRAF SHAZLY/AFP/Getty Images)
Read more: The Iranian Navy: A Symbolic Show of Force in the Atlantic | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
"Tehran announced Feb. 8 that it had dispatched a frigate and a supply ship to the North Atlantic Ocean, where they will approach U.S. maritime borders. This is not the first time the Iranians have announced their intent to deploy naval vessels close to the United States. Iran made two such declarations in 2011 but never followed through.However, following the most recent announcement, Iranian Adm. Afshin Rezayee Haddad said the Iranian fleet is actually underway, already approaching the South Atlantic Ocean through waters off the coast of South Africa. The Iranian decision to deploy naval vessels to the North Atlantic is largely symbolic; it does not pose any real military risk. Iran will use the deployment to show the flag in a non-threatening manner, looking to appease its hard-liners who are dubious about the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. Given the ongoing nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P-5+1 group -- the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany -- the Iranian navy's operation takes place in a politically sensitive context. Decades of animosity between the United States and Iran has created diehard camps in each country that must be managed carefully because they can seriously disrupt any potential agreement. The political rhetoric surrounding the talks can seem polarized at times, with any breakthrough in negotiations matched by stern warnings and guarantees that neither side is giving up too much.For the United States, this rhetoric translates as continued assurances of the effectiveness of current sanctions. In return, Iran constantly reiterates the parts of its nuclear program that it has refused to give up. Both sides also like to remind each other that military options are always on the table. The possible excursion into the Atlantic by the Iranian navy -- and the public announcement about the deployment -- fits this ongoing dynamic between Tehran and Washington.It is unclear whether the Iranians will actually sail to the North Atlantic, but it is important to note that such a deployment is certainly within their capabilities." (STRATFOR)
"The results of a simple but extremely accurate midterm election forecasting model indicate that the 2014 U.S. House elections are likely to result in minimal change in the party balance of power. The forecasting model uses three predictors — the current party balance of power in the House, the results of the last presidential election and the relative standing of the two parties on the generic ballot question, a national poll that asks voters which party they prefer in their local House race. Estimates for the model are shown below based on all 17 midterm elections since the end of World War II. The party holding the White House almost always loses House seats in midterm elections. However, the size of those losses varies considerably, and one key factor is how many seats the president’s party is defending. These results indicate that Democratic losses are likely to be limited in 2014 due to the fact that Democrats are defending only 201 seats this year. As a result, Republican pickup opportunities are likely to be limited.
Another regular feature of midterm elections is that the bigger the winning margin for the president two years earlier, the more seats his party is likely to lose in the midterm election. That is due to the removal of presidential coattails in the midterm election. In this case, however, the effect is likely to be small because President Obama’s margin of victory in 2012 was only four percentage points. Obama’s coattails were very short, so Democrats mostly won’t miss their presence in 2014. Finally, the results of the generic ballot have a significant influence on House seat swing. The better the performance of Republicans on the generic ballot in early September, the more seats Republicans are likely to gain in November. For every one point of additional margin on the generic ballot, a party can expect to win about 1.7 additional House seats. Thus, a 10-point generic ballot margin would be worth roughly 17 additional House seats. The generic ballot results do not accurately predict seat swing until the summer and early fall of the election year. However, based on the number of seats currently held by each party in the House and the results of the 2012 presidential election, we can calculate the expected seat swing in November depending on where the parties stand on the generic ballot in early September." (CenterforPolitics)
CHIP SOMODEVILLA/GETTY IMAGES
"At this point, it kind of feels like we know more about President Obama’s television-watching habits than our own. The commander-in-chief has talked many a time about his love of shows like Homeland ('You’re a finer actress than I am president,' he told Claire Danes), Breaking Bad, and The Wire. You might think a guy with a stressful life like his might prefer the likes of New Girl or Orange Is the New Black, but, nope, the man likes his bleak, intense hour-long dramas. And The New York Times is reporting that at the state dinner for President François Hollande of France on Tuesday night, Obama 'made a point of approaching' HBO’s C.E.O. Richard Plepler and accosting him in the manner of an impatient Internet commenter, asking, “Where is my True Detective and Game of Thrones?' Per the Times, Obama then told Plepler that 'the coming weekend would be a good time to have the DVDs,' as he is due to arrive at Sunnylands in Rancho Mirage, California, tomorrow for the three-day weekend. If there’s anyone in the world who could gain access to the next season of Game of Thrones before it bows in April, it would surely be Obama, so it shouldn’t be much of a surprise that he seems to have gotten his wish: 'After his conversation, Mr. Obama waved over one of his aides to make sure that Mr. Plepler knew where to send the DVDs to ensure they would make it through White House security and end up in the president’s hands.' (This reporter’s observational prowess would clearly make Zoe Barnes proud.)" (VanityFair)
"The actress Ellen Barkin strode onstage at Alice Tully Hall on Monday night, champagne in hand, to toast her 'best friend' Bryan Lourd, the powerful but low-key managing partner of the Creative Artists Agency.“Right now,” she said wryly, 'there are about 300 people out there staring daggers at me, thinking: ‘What are you talking about? I’m Bryan Lourd’s best friend.’ 'Only 300? That estimate seemed rather low, given that more than 750 people (including seemingly half the Vanity Fair cover subjects of the last decade) turned out for the Lincoln Center American Songbook gala honoring Mr. Lourd, a trustee of the arts center and one of Hollywood’s pre-eminent string-pullers.Unlike his agency’s vast stable of A-list clients, Mr. Lourd is not a household name. But his distinct brand of Hollywood soft power was clear, to judge by the legions of entertainment luminaries who filled the glassy atrium to pay their respects: Anne Hathaway, Sarah Jessica Parker, Gwyneth Paltrow, Jimmy Fallon, Madonna and David Geffen, among dozens of others.While the size of the crowd, as well as the outpouring of mass affection, called to mind a royal coronation, if not a state dinner, several clients (and, yes, close friends) made clear that Mr. Lourd does not carry himself like an imperious king of Hollywood.'He’s just very humble, a nice boy from Louisiana, which he and I bonded over,” said the New Orleans-born Reese Witherspoon. 'He has all those beautiful Southern manners,' adding that Mr. Lourd is one person in Hollywood who still understands the power of a handwritten thank-you note.Whoopi Goldberg praised Mr. Lourd for rising above the cliché of the slick, abrasive Hollywood agent. 'He tells the truth,' she said. 'That is more important than anything, especially in our business, where lying is an art.'" (NYT)
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"On Monday, February 3rd, Kamie Lightburn, Heather Georges, and Stephanie Foster hosted a elegant luncheon at Le Cirque to announce the Spring YAGP Gala that they will chair. Guests of honor included NYCB's former principal dancer, Charles Askegard and ABT's principal dancer, James Whiteside. Guests that bared the cold weather in support of YAGP included: Suzie Aijala, Dr. Lisa Airan, Kate Allen, Charles Askegard, Paige Betz, Dr. Tevor Born, Phil Chen, Herman Cornejo, Jenny Frank, Melissa Gibbons, Paige Hardy, Judith Hoffman, Sharon Hoge, Sharon Hurowitz, Tracey Huff, Nathalie Kaplan, Lisa Klein, Nyssa Kourakos, Pam Ludwick, Jonathan Marder, Lisa Morse (Chair, YAGP), Elyse Newhouse, Ramona Norton, Kate Peck, Kathy Prounis, Larissa Saveliev (Founder of YAGP), Dana Sciff, Jean Shafiroff, Margot Tarkian, Evelyn T Amanda Tapiero, Kari Tiedemann, Evelyn Tompkins, Alexis Waller, and James Whiteside." (NYSD)
"Just a quick note to explain why I dropped Rachel all those years ago. I was recently moved into a new domicile, somewhere in Chelsea on Tenth Avenue, and my naughtiest friend was coming to visit me. 'I have a housewarming gift for you,' she said, and I fell for it. Because we were acquainted already for a decade I knew better than to leave anything tempting out in view. As she made her way over I rushed around tucking silver ashtrays under couch cushions and even went to the extraordinary lengths of placing all my jewels, a small pile of heirlooms, into a pale blue velvet pouch which I tucked into a boot and shoved to the back and dusty recesses of a closet. Rachel arrived in a whirlwind of chatter and chaos and high spirits and sure enough she had brought me something, a gardenia scented candle. It crossed my mind this item had likely been lifted and spirited away from its previous owner, but I love the smell of gardenia, so I lit it and offered I private prayer. When Rachel asked me if I would be so gracious as to make her a cup of tea it was my pleasure to oblige. Soon the kettle was whistling and boiling and I became engrossed in the process of steeping. When I turned around to hand her the brew she was nowhere to be seen. 'Rachel!' I called but heard nothing back. I sped from room to room calling out her name. And then I found her on the floor on her stomach, face deep into the closet. Somehow with her perfectly calibrated criminal olfactory system she had sniffed out the hiding place. 'What the hell!' I exploded and ran and grabbed her by the ankles and dragged her, belly scraping on the bare floorboards, out from the closet. I yanked her out though still her arms were stiffly outstretched and her hands closely gripped around my bag of jewels." (Christina Oxenberg)
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