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Saturday, July 21, 2012

Will Romney Pick A Latino/Latina?

Mitt Romney could go several directions with his VeePee. He could do the safe, boring pick -- Portman or Pawlenty -- as counter-progamming against McCain's disaterous pick in 2008. He could pick bold -- Condi Rice, counterprogramming against Vice President Biden, for a spectacular Realist versis Neoconservative debate. He could pick a strong woman, bringing up the still raw wounds some feel about Hillary.

Or Romney can pick Latino/Latina -- Rubio or, more interestingly former Governor Martinez -- tipping New Mexico and eating away at Obama's critical lead among Latino voters. From PPP:
"PPP's newest New Mexico poll finds the race for President there getting a lot more competitive. Barack Obama continues to lead but his advantage is down to 5 points at 49-44, a far cry from the leads of 14 and 15 points he had on our previous two polls of the state.
"The big difference between now and April comes with Democrats. Previously Obama was winning them 85-12 but now that lead is down to 73-21. New Mexico is a state, like North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where any chance at victory for Romney is going to require winning over a significant number of conservative Democrats. Right now he's doing a pretty decent job of that.
"New Mexico still looks like a lean Obama state, but a surprise choice by Mitt Romney of Susana Martinez as his running mate could make the state a toss up."

Obama leads big among Latino's -- 70-22 margin -- but that is still not as large as he won in 2008. If Romney picked Rubio or Governor Martinez it would be interesting to see how much Latino vote erosion Obama suffers.

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