Every year around this time for many, many years The Corsair gives some predictions on politics, culture, media.
Last year this blog made many predictions -- a lot of them close. Some of them were wa-a-ay off. Like: "30 Rock will finally crack the Nielsen Top 10. Charlie Rose will be forced to cut back on his hyper-media schedule due to health concerns. Walter Isaacson will replace him on his late night talk show." That's humbling.
But this blog also got some predictions near correct, like: "ABC's Good Morning America will come within a whisker of tying NBC's Today, leading to some consternation among the suits at 30 Rock as to whether or not Ann Curry was a good replacement for Meredith Vieira."
The following is a prediction that I made for 2012: "This blog will double down for 2013. Pakistan will be rocked by mass protests against the military. Protesters will demand for the rule of law and the elevation of judges over the generals. The protesters will take Tahrir Square as their model. The instability in a nuclearized state will cause much anxiety in Washington."
2013 will be the year of Pakistan's transformation as the Arab Spring finally hits, the main theme of the protests which will rock 2013 is that no man and no general is above the rule of law. Law and Justice will be the great political forces moving through Pakistan this year.
Already you can see this force moving through India, in the wake of the bus rape. A tipping point has been reached in Central Asia as well as the Middle East. In India, Pakistan (and to some degree China and Putin's Russia as well) there will be riots and civil unrest as the people struggle to venerate lawyers and incorruptable judges to the forefront, shunning military generals and police forces and juntas.
Hillary Clinton, citing health reasons, will by the end of the year decide not to run for President. Mark Warner will end the year as the Democrat who wants it most. A grass roots campaign to amend the Constitution allowing foreign born politicians to run for President will emerge, touting Jennifer Granholme as the best bet for Democrats. Hillary will tentatively put signal that she approves.
Celebrity Politics will continue to be a force in 2013. Ben Affleck will mull a run for a Congressional seat -- and eventually a statewide Senate seat -- in Georgia (not Massachusetts), hoping to finally put it in the Democrat column. Ashley Judd will run against Mitch McConnell.
Anne Hathaway will win Best Actress at the Oscars for Les Miserables (of course). Daniel Day Lewis will win best Actor (of course).
The mobile industry will continue to expand, dwarfing the gains made in 2012. Mobile will become the number one way to read news. Newspapers, particularly, will amp up mobile-friendly editions, scuttling their tablet designs (a trend that was already beginning in 2012 with the demise of NewsCorps The Daily). Ashley Harrison, on Forbes, goes further, saying, "With publishers seeing a solid third of readership originating from mobile devices, it is likely that mobile news distribution will grab a 33 percent market share in terms of digital publishing in 2013." I believe that the number might even soar higher than that and that reading news on smartphones will be the way.
John McLaughlin will quietly retire from The McLaughlin Group after a series of embarassing gaffes, showing an increasing senility, go viral in the middle of the year.
The Italian elections will become a grusome referendum on the European Union. Berlusconi will head a formidable -- though farcicle -- anti-EU platform, seeking Italy's exit from the Union. He will be narrowly defeated, rattling world markets and causing a great conversation as to whether or not the EU even has the will to exist.
CNN's Jeff Zucker will cancel the Piers Morgan show, opting to pay out the controversial talker's contract.
Samantha Power will be nominated to become United States Ambassador to the United Nations; Susan Rice will be named National Security Advisor.
Elizabeth Spiers will be named editor of New York magazine after Adam Moss steps down, ushering a new era of toung turks taking the helm of old(ish) media.
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